THE TRUTH OF ASTROLOGY

Most of the people who believe in astrology do not have any knowledge of the structure of astrology.Many of them might have found that some sort of predictions made by astrologers did come true in either their own case or in the case of their acquaintances. That is usually the main reason why they believe in it. Unquestioning belief in age-old traditions is also an important reason. The funny part of this belief is that the predictions that went wrong are ignored or easily forgotten by them. The excuses put up for wrong predictions are commonplace. Pro-astrology people argue that astrologers who have full knowledge of astrology are very rare. The average astrologers who do not have enough knowledge of it can make wrong predictions. And moreover, the time of birth provided to them is often incorrect, which makes their predictions go wrong; but that is no fault of astrology itself! It is obvious that nobody can eliminate such vague factors, and consequently, real assessment of astrology becomes an impossible task.

Movement against astrology

Dr.Abraham Kowoor was the First man who practically brought the rationalism in to movement. He used a popular tool of challenge of Rs 100 000 against the Godmen’s miracles in 1972. In the List there was Challenge regarding Astrology. Ten palm-prints or horoscopes having birthplace with correct latitude & longitude, time of birth correct up to minutes will be given to astrologer. He is supposed to tell only two things.
· Whether the person is Male or Female
· Dead or alive
Nobody had accepted the challenge at that time. ANS further enhanced this amount up to Rs 200 000 and now it is Rs 500 000. Media has given wide publicity to this challenge from time to time. The prediction tolerance was even relaxed to 20%. But still nobody has accepted it. However, challenge achieved goal, making people to start thinking and questioning. Is it not really possible to forecast even present? Why even single learned astrologer throughout India could not predict exactly for so many years? May not be for money but for image of astrology? In fact in-depth knowledge of astrology is not required for simple predictions. On logical level if one cannot tell even present correctly how can he forecast the futuristic events of some importance?With reference to past,“present” is always a future.
The unknown mystery always develops curiosity to make it known. This is the reason why science has reached to such developed state. Future is also unknown to us and human being tries hardto have a glimpse of it. If we could know the future at present it is possible to manage disaster. This thought lead to develop the astrology in different way.Man tried to correlate the terrestrial events with celestial events,
ANS always questions astrology on every possible level i.e. challenge level or education level or experimental level. Challenge level is a popular and glamorous tool for the movement. It gets support of media.Educational level is a process to educate people giving details of failed predictions.To let people think regarding counter part of Astrology which is generally not available for them.To show internal contradictions of astrology in Siddhanta level or postulate level. Apart from the challenge the experiments were made on astrology.Experimental level is to let the people get the experience of predictions to check possible claims of astrology.We tell the people to experience the experiment of past events. A horoscope of newly born baby but dead within hours was given to astrologer. Doctor even queried whether is there possibility of short life? Astrologer emphatically told that baby was going to live long years. This is the wisdom of the astrology! .
Let people choose any astrologer of their belief.Elderly people have at least three – four incidents in their life which are very objective e.g. marriage, major accidents, promotions, sudden death in family etc.Tell astrologer either year of event or event.And let the astrologer tell the remaining part.We don’t want even month or date just year is sufficient.If astrologer could tell it correctly you may say there is something in astrology.
We have found that these themes made good atmosphere to make people think. But acceptance on practical level found very difficult.To digest uncertainty of life is not a simple thing.The education is slow process but the only way. We understand man is not a machine.
Maharashtra ANS has handled the matter of astrology on various levels.

Dr. Narendra Dabholkar had given challenge to All India Astrological Convention, Late Dr. B.N. Purandare famous gynecologist in Mumbai and strong advocate of astrology, Late Shahu Modak – Astrologer as well as film-star, Dr. Bhavana Mehta from Kolhapur,Girish Shah from Sangali etc. But all these matters remained unknown to media.Actual process of challenge never started.
Because of this strong opposition, astrologers now admit that male or female, dead or alive are limitations of astrology.They claim that they just guide with the help of astrology.It is divine science not a modern science. It is, in fact, an occult science.
Astrology works only because of uncertainty in life.It is a psychiatric treatment on astrological background.It is a type of counseling. It is never been proved on statistical & scientific level. But in our society mental health is paid least attention.
STRAY THOUGHTS

Of Palmists, Astrologers and Stock Market Analysts
Foretelling is an enigmatic business.For long years I have been an observer of forecasters and I, myself, have been one for a few years.I used to be an equity researcher, predicting the price movements of stocks linking the prices to the performance of the underlying companies and the state of the markets.When I look back to my old writing, which have rightfully found place in the attic, I get an amazing mix of predictions gone both ways – right and wrong.
I have also been checking on the buy/sell/hold recommendations of various fellow analysts, to find a more or less similar pattern.Yet the business goes on.Nobody has ever been blamed for ruining investor’s wealth and taken to the court.Most analysts do not even get fired for predicting market movements that did not happen.
With due apologies to their MBA degrees, these forecasters could well be grouped with palmists and astrologers, who find themselves in more or less the same state, except that they do not earn salaries and bonuses like analysts working for transnational broking houses.But a few of them have become stars, thanks to TV and newspaper appearances.I have even purchased annual forecasts, detailed month by month, for the sun signs, my wife and I belong to.We carefully read the forecasts and I even went to the extent of noting down the summaries into my palm pilot, so that on the first of each month I would know how the rest of the month would behave with me.The analysis of the results is as predictable as Paneer in a Delhi banquet.
And I believe your experience is no worse than mine.Remember that I am not proposing that all forecasting is horseshit.All I am saying is that, it is not a product or service which will perform like a pressure cooker or a refrigerator, which when turned on will cook and chill respectively, always, in a working condition.Forecasts are not reliable like these simple gadgets.And all of us know this.

Then why do I buy this defective product, which will not always work?
What Dr Narlikar says
Describing astrology as urban superstition, noted astrophysicist Jayant Narlikar expressed concern over the growing number of young people being influenced by it. Narlikar was speaking in the context of creating a society with scientific temper, at a public interview on his latest book Scientific Edge.
Belief in astrology should be re-examined; said Narlikar “It is not just older generation. It is worrying to see that more young people have belief in astrology today. I suggest every person examine it individually and come to a rational decision about it.” he said.
In what was an engaging one-hour interview by friend and director of IUCAA Narendra Dadhich, Narlikar responded to questions on his book, which details the highs and low of growth of science in India during the millennium.
Speaking of the need for a change in social mindset for the development of a scientific temper in India , Narlikar highlighted the role of reformer Raja Ram Mohan Roy, one of the personalities whose contribution to science has been recognized in the book. Raja Ram Mohan Roy is remembered for his role in abolishing sati. He was social reformer who promoted modern scientific education and understood that progress an only come by changing mindset.
Responding to questions on science and religion, which form the concluding chapter of the book, Narlikar emphasized that the two were separate spheres and that one should not trespass other.
While religion, said Narlikar, must accommodate scientific facts, science must accept that it cannot explain everything. Creation of Universe, for instance, is still unexplained. “This is a big challenge. Science for its part, must learn humility” said Narlikar.
Astrolgy to be Taught in Educational institutions

“The idea of having or allowing astrology taught in educational institutions is a regressive one,” thundered Mr.Yechuri. He remembered Murli Manohar Joshi as having said that astrology must be taught, as we must rely on our faith -(vishwas) - also. Recently in Chennai, a delegation of ministers was being received at a function. On the podium table were many water glasses filled with water and one of them had coloured water. This glass was actually used as a flower-vase: the gardener had just taken out the old flowers and was searching for new ones from the garden. Meanwhilethe minister drank the coloured waterthinking it to be some juice or soft drink. The minister was in hospital for 3 days, for his blind faith in the contents of the glass. So, deduced Mr.Yechuri, there is at least one difference between "vishwas" and scientific thinking: three days in hospital!
“The Government's changing of history records is a cause of concern,” said Mr.Yechuri. The BJP and allies, to prove that Hinduism is a "pure" and native religion, have also to prove that the Aryans did not come from outside. For that, they have to further prove that Mohenjodaro and Harappa had some Aryan culture. One mark of Aryan culture is horses, which they needed for travel and warfare. They found a horse's bone near the site, so, it proves, they said, that they were Aryan settlements and that further proves that the Aryans are from here! However, when the bone was analysed, it was found to be only 200 years old!”
Mr.Yechuri pointed out another ridiculous gaff of the BJP - appointed historians. In the sites, a statue of a bull-like creature with long hair and mane was found. They fed a picture of it into computers, and one computer concluded that it looks like a horse! So, they said, it is actually a statue of a horse, and so it proves that they were fromAryan civilization, and so Aryans are from here. Well, Yechuri said with a smile, “When you call a bull a horse, and try to convince everyone that a statue of a bull is actually that of a horse, we can imagine what sort of ideologies and theories you have!”
Mr.Yechuri recalled a joke from his university professorship days. A professor digs in his garden about 10 feet deep, and finds some sort of wire. So he rushes to a colleague and exclaims, "Look what I found. It proves that the ancient Indians were very advanced - they had telephone!" "Excellent," says the colleague, and begins to dig deeper in the same spot. He finds nothing, so he rushes to the first professor and exclaims, "See, I didn't find anything, so it proves that the very, very ancient Indians were still more advanced - they had wireless!"
On measuring "true Hinduism", Mr.Yechuri had something to say. He hails from Andhra Pradesh, where, in some regions a girl is automatically married off to her mother's brother as soon as she comes of age. In North India such a practice would be considered despicable, and the offenders probably lynched. The question is, who is the true Hindu, the North Indians for condemning it, or the Andhraites for allowing it?
The futility of measuring "true Hinduism" can also be seen from the "Mahabali" example. In Kerala and among Keralites, the Onam festival is celebrated. Its theme is that a good and benevolent king Mahabali visits his subjects once a year on that day. The subjects are happy that the king lives at least one day a year for them. In North India , Mahabali is a rakshash who is killed by Vishnu, and whose death was necessary so that the world may exist. So, now, who is the true Hindu, the North Indians for condemning Mahabali, or the Keralites for worshipping him?
Preventing religious beliefs is like Ram telling Krishna-worshippers not to follow Krishna , and Krishna telling Ram-worshippers not to follow Ram. From this we can see that even God does not have the authority to tell you whom to worship and whom not to worship. Atheism is also a belief, so God has no right to condemn anyone for being an atheist. And if even God has no authority in religious matters, who are these saffronites, the BJP and its allies, to tell us?
Sitaram Yechuri ersity should introduce such a subject, which will take the students to Middle Ages.Pourohitya should not be taught in Indian universities since it will promote the age-old and outdated rituals, which do not have any scientific or ethical basis.
(Excerpts from the speech of Mr. Sitaram Yechuri, a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of India , Marxist, New Delhi on
11th October 2003
at Nigdi, Pune. Nigel J. Shaughnessy prepared the transcript)

Action taken by ANS

UGC has circulated a note to all vice-chancellors of Indian Universities to introduce courses in Astrology at under-graduate, post-graduate and doctorate levels. ANS has strongly opposed this saffron move of the ruling Government since it gives sanction to dubious science. Our activists contacted vice chancellors of PuneUniversity , Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University, BombayUniversity , NagpurUniversity and UttarMaharashtraUniversity in this regard and suggested that the course on astrology should not be introduced as directed by UGC since it is following the path of partisanship and regression. It is high time they called the bluff of astrology and other such spurious ‘sciences’, and revealed them for the fraud they are. Almost all the vice chancellors agreed to our stand and promised us that no courses will be introduced in their respective universities. In fact ANS activists of Aurangabad filed a case in the court to direct UGC not to introduce such courses in educational institutions.
ANS also arranged lectures at various places opposing the move of UGC to elevate astrology as an academic discipline. On one hand we have talented workforce in the field of information technology and still we are trying to pursue the studies already proved defunct. We are trying to laud our obsession with pseudo sciences such as astrology. We should endeavor to change our image that of ‘a land of astrology, mysticism, spiritualism and all that hocus pocus’ as perceived by people outside India. ANS invited staunch supporters of astrology on the public platform to debate on the issue. A number of debates took place in various places and both sides presented their views. In this way the audience was able to make up their mind and convince themselves of the futility of astrology.
We also arranged conferences at selected places and the gathering passed following resolutions unanimously:
Astrology should not be taught in the Indian colleges and universities.
The consumer protection act to be applied to all astrology practitioners since consumers incur heavy losses due to false predictions.
The weekly column on astrology in newspapers and magazines should contain a statutory warning “ For Entertainment Only”.
Horoscopes will not be consulted while arranging the marriages.
Fatalism should be completely eradicated.
While this issue is going to press, the All India Astrologers Conference might have been held at Solapur sometime in December. This was also one more Jamboree trumpeting their own glory especially while UGC has introduced astrology as a subject in a few universities. ANS utilized this occasion to bring home its point against such pseudo-science.We wrote letters to leading astrologers requesting them to submit the proof that astrology meets at least postulates. Past experience shows that none of the experts come forward to put-forth their arguments, or at least a common sense explanation in support of their belief, perhaps it is not a debatable issue as far as they are concerned. We also organized a state-level competition to narrate the horrifying experience faced due to false predictions by astrologers. In any other country this daylight robbery would have been prevented by the state itself under some law and the culprits involved would be put behind the bars.
ANS units all over the state have been instructed to organize pledge ceremony for students who will publicly take oath condemning such malpractices and vow not to believe in astrology or horoscopes. This will enthuse the students to do hard work instead of relying on fate, chance or coincidence. We have also requested the eminent personalities in Maharashtra to come forward and take firm stand about this issue before it is too late. Perhapsa joint statement may be made in this regard condemning astrology as a pseudo science, which goes against our cherished human values.

A statistical test of astrology
Jayant V. Narlikar, Sudhakar Kunte, Narendra Dabholkar and Prakash Ghatpande
This paper describes a recent test conducted in Maharashtra to test the predictive power of natal astrology. It involved collecting 200 birth details of 100 bright school students (group A) and 100 mentally retarded school students (group B). These details were used to cast horoscopes or birth charts for these children. After recording these details the charts were mixed and randomized and astrologers were invited to participate in a test of their predictive ability. Fifty-one astrologers participated in the test. Each participant was sent a random set of 40 birth charts and asked to identify to which group each chart corresponded. Among the initial 51 participants, 27 sent back their assessment. Statistical analysis of the results showed a success rate marginally less than what would be achieved by tossing a coin. The full sample of 200 birth charts was given to the representatives of an astrology institute for identification. They also did not fare any better. The limited but unambiguous procedure of this test leaves no doubt that astrology does not have any predictive power as far as academic ability is concerned. Ways of extending the scope of this test are discussed for
future experiments.
In the popular mind astrology is often confused with astronomy. Since both subjects talk about stars, constellations, planets and the sun and the moon, it is usually assumed that both are branches of science dealing with the cosmos. An example of this was the announcement by the University Grants Commission in 2001, that a subject called ‘Vedic astrology’ should be introduced in the science stream of the university syllabus.
Is astrology a science? A closer examination suggests that the answer to this question is ‘no’. A subject claiming to be part of science needs to satisfy certain minimum criteria. First, it should be based on postulates or assumptions that are clearly defined and are unique so far as the practitioners of the subject are concerned. Secondly, from these postulates the subject should come up with testable and disprovable deductions, that do not depend on who makes them. Finally, there should be tests for deciding whether a particular deduction is validated or disproved.
regarding their own self-assessment. A variation in this technique using California Personality Inventory (CPI) for the person was used instead iAstrology, when subjected to these conditions, has always been found to be wanting. The basic tenets of the subject show considerable variation, such as the way a horoscope is to be cast. Even with a given horoscope two astrologers may differ in their interpretation or prediction. Finally, often the predictions are vague and not disprovable.
Nevertheless, in the West, tests have been conducted of astrological predictions, to the extent that they can be tied down to definitive statements. We mention two examples which will illustrate
how one may proceed. The first relates to the belief (common in India) that unless the horoscopes of an eligible boy and girl match astrologically, they should not marry.
Bernie Silverman, a graduate student from the Michigan State University, USA, had the following experiment as part of his Ph D thesis (received in 1971). His study picked out (A) 2978 couples who were happily married and
(B) 478 couples who were divorced or separated. Their horoscopes were cast and given to two astrologers who were asked to agree between themselves as to whether the horoscopes belonging to a couple matched or not. The astrologers were not told to what class (A or B) each pair belonged. Accordingly, they made the classification using the astrological criteria they mutually agreed upon. Their classification was then compared with reality by applying statistical tests. These tests showed that there was no significant overlap between the two classifications. Thus astrological compatibility of horoscopes did not correspond to compatibility in real life. Details of this study have been published elsewhere1,2. A double-blind approach was used in our second example of a test of astrology. Carlson3 used birth charts to test the astrological claim that the positions of the ‘planets’ (as assumed in astrology) at the moment of birth can be used to determine the subject’s general personality traits and tendancies in temperament and behaviour, and to indicate the major issues the subject is likely to encounter. In this test astrologers were invited to make
such interpretations for the birth charts of all the persons chosen for the study. Each person was given three such interpretations: the first being based on his/her real birth chart and two others chosen at random from this collection. The person was asked to rank them with marks out of ten depending on how accurate they weren a second associated test. Here, the participating astrologers were each given a birth chart and three CPIs. One CPI corresponded to the birth chart given, while two others were randomly drawn from the sample. The astrologers were asked to rank the three CPIs according to how well they described the person with that birth chart.
If there is no correlation between the birth chart and personality, then, in the first experiment, one-third of the actual interpretations should be chosen as number 1. The astrologers claimed that if they are right at least half the actual interpretations should be correct. The experimenters allowed a 2.5s variation above the chance expectation: anything higher would support the astrological hypothesis. A double-blind procedure was used so that neither the participant nor the experimenter knew what they were looking at. All details of birth charts vis-à-vis the persons they corresponded to were coded. Details are given in the paper referred to above. We simply state that in the first analysis the correct interpretation was obtained with a
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probability of 0.337 and with an error 0.052, very close to the chance value of 1/3.
With this background we now come to our experiment.
The Pune experiment
While designing a suitable test we were conscious of the need that the outcome has to be beyond any ambiguity of interpretation. Thus in the Carlson experiment one could say that reading a person’s personality may not be clear-cut. Indeed, as it was discovered in the course of the Carlson experiment, the CPI may not be recognized by the person to whom it belonged. The Silverman method of marriage compatibility is better, except that in the Indian context the rate of broken marriages is still rather low and collecting a large enough sample may pose difficulties. We will return to this point at the end of this paper.
For our experiments we chose a different but clear criterion, namely whether a person is intellectually bright or mentally handicapped. Astrologers claim to be able to tell this difference from the person’s horoscope. So from amongst school children we collected a sample of 200 cases, with 100 each belonging to the above two classes. The intellectually bright children constituting group A were known from their school records as certified by their teachers. The mentally retarded children making up group B came from special schools for such children. Certified information from the parents about the birth details of their wards, necessary for casting their horoscopes was obtained. This field work was done by the volunteers of the Andhashraddha Nirmulan Samiti, Satara.
The next job was to cast their horoscopes. This was done using standard software by one of us (PG) who possessed enough experience in astrology, having been a practising astrologer a few years back.
The data were then codified with a code number assigned to each case. By deciphering the code number the concerned case could be fully identified; otherwise it remained an unknown entity. This was therefore a double-blind procedure since neither the experimenter nor the participant of the experiment could identify the case from the code number only. The data thus obtained and codified were
stored in safe custody with the Statistics Department, Pune University.
Meanwhile, through public announcements and a press conference in Pune on 12 May 2008, practising astrologers were invited to participate in the experiment, the procedure for which was also explained. Of the 200 cases in our sample, each participant would be given a randomly drawn set of 40 birth charts along with the birth records. The participants had then a stipulated time limit by which they would have to identify each case as belonging to group (A) or (B), and send us their conclusions. For the initial set, the participants were asked to send a stamped registered envelope. Additionally, we also invited established astrological organizations to participate as institutions. In such cases we offered to make the entire sample of 200 cases available.
The nature of the statistical test is simple. We have two hypotheses to compare. The chance hypothesis H0 is that the selection between groups A and B is like tossing a coin with probability 0.5 attached to each mode. The alternative hypothesis H1 is that the classification using astrological prediction has success probability more than 0.5. For such a testing hypothesis problem, in order to reject H0 in favour of H1, the success rate has to exceed the mean expectation on the basis of H0 by an amount equivalent to 2.32s. This procedure ensures that the probability of wrongly rejecting H0 is not more than 1%. For a binomial distribution with success probability P = 0.5, the mean for a sample size N is 0.5N and s = (N/4)1/2. For a sample size N = 40, we get the mean as 20 and s = 3.16; so 2.32s = 7.3. In short, for our typical sample size the success rate of the astrologers to reject H0 had to be at least
28. In the institutional case, the corresponding figures were mean = 100 and the required success rate for H1 to hold was 117 or more. Response of the astrologers
When this framework was announced, the response of the astrologers was varied. Some agreed to take up the challenge, others asked for additional conditions which had no relevance to the nature of the test being conducted, while some called upon the astrological community to boycott the test. We met several astrologers individually and also partici
pated in a seminar where we explained the nature of the test, its objective and the precautions we were taking to prevent any rigging. We also pointed out that if the astrologers wished to claim that their subject was a science, then they need to face such tests. While on the whole the response was positive, some leading astrologers distanced themselves from the test.
In the end, 51 astrologers sent stamped envelopes as asked for and the sets were sent to them. Only 27 replied, sending their answers. These were then examined in the light of the data. The best performance was 24 out of 40, achieved by one astrologer only and this fell below the stipulated minimum for H0 to be rejected in favour of H1. The overall average success per sample for all 27 participants was 17.25, less than but consistent with the average of 20 predicted by H0. So far as institutional participation was concerned, two organizations had agreed to participate. Eventually only one responded with answers. Its success rate was 102 out of 200, again well below the stipulated minimum of 117.
Thus we find on the basis of this test that the predictions given by the astrologers did not fare better than pure chance toss of a coin.
Concluding remarks
We feel that our test asked a well-focused question and the astrologers could not point to any ambiguity of interpretation. Many astrologers looked upon the success they had achieved (even though at a rate less than 50% expected by tossing a coin) as a testimonial to their predictive ability. We had to explain to them that real predictive success could be claimed only at 70% level for their sample size.
The test clearly demonstrated the hollowness of the basic claim of astrology as stated earlier. Diehard believers, of course, would not change their mind. However, it would be worthwhile conducting a similar double-blind test to check other aspects of astrological predictions. One important aspect has been the one tested by Silverman. Since a large fraction of marriages is arranged (or forbidden) on the basis of matching of horoscopes, a statistical study of this aspect will be useful. There may be several difficulties in gathering these data, but the effort would be well worth it.
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1. Silverman, B., J. Psychol., 1971, 77, 141– 149. 2. Silverman, B., J. Psychol. 1974, 87, 89–95. 3. Carlson, S., Nature, 1985, 318, 419–425. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. We thank the Department of Statistics, Pune University, and the Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Pune, for infrastructural
help while this experiment was being conducted.
Jayant V. Narlikar* is in the Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Post Bag 4, Pune 411 007, India; Sudhakar Kunte is in the Department of Statistics, Pune University, Pune
411 007, India; Narendra Dabholkar is in the Maharashtra Andhashraddha Nirmulan Samiti, c/o Parivartan, Sahyog Hospital ‘Annex’, Sadarbazar, Satara 415 001, India; Prakash Ghatpande is in the Faljyotisha Chikitsa Mandal, D 202 Kapil Abhijat Dahanukar Colony, Kothrud, Pune 411 029, India. *e-mail: jvn@iucaa.ernet.in